According to research conducted by global technology intelligence firm ABI Research, the production of Electric Vehicle (EV) batteries is set to witness a substantial increase over the next decade. The study predicts that global EV battery output production will surge nearly six times to reach a staggering 2,585 GWh by the year 2030, driven by the demand for EVs resulting from aggressive government decarbonization targets and OEM electrification strategies.
One of the key factors impeding the widespread adoption of EVs is the cost and production volume of batteries. Revolutionary technologies like solid-state batteries, which have garnered significant attention for their potential to improve ranges and reduce charging times, are currently deemed too expensive and challenging to manufacture at scale. However, battery advancements in the coming years will primarily focus on incremental improvements to existing lithium-ion batteries.
Currently, the most advanced lithium-ion batteries can achieve a range of 1,000 km or charge in under 20 minutes. Enhancements in battery technology, such as fully silicon anodes, which are expected to be available by 2025 from companies like Sila, will further improve these capabilities. In contrast, the adoption of solid-state batteries is unlikely to have a significant impact in the current decade due to the need for changes in cell design and manufacturing, unlike the improvements in lithium-ion batteries.
The surge in EV battery production will put pressure on the availability of raw materials. By 2030, demand for lithium and cobalt used in EV batteries is projected to increase by 5.3 times and 3.2 times, respectively. To mitigate the reliance on these critical minerals, battery manufacturers are striving to reduce their consumption, particularly cobalt, due to supply volatility and unethical mining practices associated with it.
Battery manufacturers have set the goal of reducing cobalt content in EV batteries by 44% by 2030. This reduction can be achieved through improved pack assembly techniques such as cell-to-pack (C2P) technology, which enhances the overall energy density of cobalt-free Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) batteries, making them suitable for various applications. Additionally, cobalt content can be decreased by increasing the overall energy density using high-nickel Nickel Manganese Cobalt (NMC) cathodes.
According to Dylan Khoo, the Electric Vehicles Industry Analyst at ABI Research, “Evolutionary improvements over current lithium-ion battery technology will be essential to reduce the cost of EVs and achieve industry-wide electrification targets.” Although EVs with long ranges and fast-charging capabilities exist, the goal is to make EVs cost-competitive with their fossil fuel counterparts.
ABI Research’s findings are part of their “Next-Generation Electric Vehicle Batteries” analysis report. As a global technology intelligence firm, ABI Research provides actionable research and strategic guidance to technology leaders, innovators, and decision-makers across various industries.
